Transcript - ABC 891 - Two Chrisses - 21 Sept 2009

SUBJECTS: Labor Party push-polling; State election issues; Magill Remand Centre; Federal election 2010 and Sturt

(greetings omitted)

Matthew Abraham: ...Chris Schacht, it should be no surprise to you that Labor Party's polling in marginal seats and not telling the candidates because you never tell them anything. But also it would appear, and we base this from interviews we've done this morning, including Michael Atkinson, he didn't deny this was going on, that people in Morialta and other marginal electorates are being polled and questions are being put to them... They're then being told 'if Isobel Redmond released Bevan Spencer von Einem from jail, does that mean she'll be soft on law and order?'

Christopher Pyne: ...it's actually outrageous!

Christopher Schacht: ...if that is happening, it's a form of push polling. That is true, but the point is, it is a pointless exercise...if you're this far out from an election, push polling if you're going to really be nasty, you do that about four nights before polling day because then the other side doesn't get a chance to respond to it, doing this far out, whatever the answer is, we're still five, six months from an election campaign.

David Bevan: No, no...I don't buy it because...

Schacht: ...you asked me for my opinion, let me finish before you hit me over the head.

Pyne: Hit him over the head!

Schacht: Otherwise I have to accuse the ABC of right wing bias...

Pyne: ...that will get them in to the Guinness Book of Records!

Schacht: ...anyway irrespective of that, push polling is misleading by and large if you're relying on it to get electoral victory, you can work in the last two or three days you could get away with it, if you get exposed, you get more damage than it's actually worth. And if you believe that this is the tactic how you're going to win an election this far out, I don't believe it. You've got to be absolutely honest with yourself in asking decent straight questions, when I read the Sunday Mail poll yesterday I saw all totally predictable, the new leader is not well known, so what, we all expected that, the Labor Government is well ahead, no argument about that. The Liberal Party has had four leaders in four years, Mike Rann has celebrated his 15^th year as leader of the Labor Party. The Liberal Party has got to get itself sorted out first before there'll be any great change in the poll even though the poll showed there is...a significant dissatisfaction level with the Government etcetera. But overall those results, nothing in the Sunday Mail poll surprised me whatsoever in where we're at. All I can say is if the Labor Party believes that's a lay down [unclear] for the next election, I say take a deep breath, count to ten and get on with the job of being a good Government.

Bevan: Chris Pyne...

Pyne: I've got a different opinion again...the candidate for Morialta is a guy called John Gardner. He is very able and he has been doorknocking and super marketing in that area of Adelaide for months and the Magill Training Centre for young South Australians who've committed crime of one kind or another and are underage, are obviously children...is showing up as an unusual kind of issue on law and order and I'm just wondering whether Labor pushing this idea about Bevan Spencer von Einem etcetera, and rack em, pack em and stack em and all this nonsense that Kevin Foley goes on with, whether they might be getting a little bit behind the debate in South Australia, because the Magill Youth Training Centre, which is in Morialta, we're finding in John Gardner's door knocking and supermarketing is that people are genuinely concerned that these people, these children are not being rehabilitated. So...

Abraham: ...that happened in a Federal poll, didn't it? W here Labor lost, but in one was the Seat of Adelaide and a couple of other...now people get angry when we use this term, but it's a political term, the doctors wives...the doctor's wives factor were unhappy with the Howard Government stance on asylum seekers, so the Labor Party picked up votes in seats that you would regard as sort of more comfortable Liberal Party territory.

Pyne: Well, my point is slightly convoluted, but Labor is out there push polling on law and order and...

Abraham: ...you're saying that's to try and counteract a softness towards the Magill Training Centre, that people feel they should be easing up and building a new Magill Training Centre.

Pyne: I think they are on the wrong track, I think Labor has had two big election wins in South Australia, they're very over confident, they're cashed up to the nines...they basically think they can get away with anything, they've been bullying the media in this State for years and I think some of the media outlets are getting finally very sick of it. Now they're out push polling on law and order issues, but we're picking up on the ground that the public are getting a little bit jaded with the same old political messages about 'rack em, pack em and stack em' and the Magill Youth Training Centre is a good example where people are saying, 'aren't these guys kids? Aren't these young men and women underage? Why are they being kept in...' I think it's an interesting point. Labor seems to think...

Abraham: ...you're saying it's an issue, is it an issue?

Pyne: You push poll on an issue that you think will change votes. Labor thinks that if they talk tough about law and order, that that will somehow deliver them elections. Well they've been in power for eight years, how much more do they need to add to the criminal records of people in this State to try and win elections. People are actually saying about the Magill Youth Training Centre, which is in Morialta, why don't they actually do something about rehabilitating people, rather than just putting them in jail. I think push polling is a waste of time, I think the public sees through it. They think 'they get off the phone and have a bit of a laugh and think those pollies must think we're bloody silly if we're going to listen to that kind of nonsense'.

Bevan: Chris Schacht, you say that push polling is not effective this far out from an election, now I say you're wrong because Michael Atkinson comes on very, very quickly on this program to talk about this, why? Because the discussion is in the area of his choosing, that is he wants to have a law and order debate. So, even if Isobel Redmond comes out to counter the push polling that's been done in these seats, the Labor Party wins again, because they get to talk about law and order.

Schacht: Well I don't think law and order is going to be the issue that decides this State election.

Pyne: Neither do I.

Schacht: The issue that's in favour of the Government is the comparatively well positioned State economy, compared with, we've had a mild recession, South Australia in this mild recession has done better than most other States, usually in South Australian history, the last 60 years if there's been a mild recession we're always the bottom of the pit, first in and last out of the recession, we've done better and the Labor Government will be - that is the issue they'll be able to campaign strongly on and point to the Liberal Party saying, you've had four leaders in four years, who the heck is going to run the State properly, we've delivered the goods on a good economy, that's the issue that will win the election.

Pyne: I think that the South Australian public, the thing about that Sunday Mail poll that was of interest in there is yet again another poll showing that people are basically dissatisfied with the Rann Government. I mean, there is...the only thing or sometimes the polls have indicated that the Rann Government is actually not that popular.

Bevan: ...they're even more dissatisfied with your Liberal Party ... the dissatisfaction rate for the Government is, are you satisfied with the performance of the State Labor Government, 48% said dissatisfied, okay same question for the Liberal Opposition, 63% are dissatisfied with your party.

Pyne: But Government's don't...Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them...

Bevan: ...it's pretty hard for you to win on a 63% dissatisfaction rate.

Pyne: Mr Rann has been tripping all around the country, all around the world with Lance Armstrong, running in to him in Dublin. 'Oh, Lance Armstrong! What a coincidence. Oh, Deidre Chambers, what a coincidence!' and there he is out there trying to get the media, spending taxpayers money on advertisements and yet he's still not very popular as a Government so that suggests to me that there is real potential for the State Opposition.

Bevan: Chris Schacht, for the Labor Party...

Schacht: ...undecided was 12%, wasn't allocated in the survey, if all that 12% went to the Liberal Party, it would be a very close election result, but usually undecided splits proportionately to what the already indicated vote is. And sometimes it doesn't ... the thing is with a dissatisfaction rate that the Labor Party has high 40s there should no complacency in the Labor Party after eight years about this...

Pyne: ...but there is...

Schacht: ...the converse position is, even in that story, if I remember reading, some unnamed Liberal said oh well if Isobel doesn't perform, well we'll give her the chop. Another one...five in four years...the primary vote...

Pyne: A lot can happen between now and Election Day...

Schacht: ...if Isobel Redmond, and it's a big risk and if she does modestly well and wins a couple of seats back off Labor in this coming election, a couple of seats back on the Independents, she'll still be way short of Government, but it will be an improvement, will the Liberal Party let her be the leader for the next four years or will they chop and change again? 'Cause as soon as they chop and change, they just blow themselves out of the water!

Pyne: ...I think one of the other things about the State election, sorry David, trying to get away...there'll be some interesting local results based on different candidates. For example we've got some strong candidates, like Matt Donovan in Mawson and I don't think Leon Bignell is a strong candidate in that seat. Steven Marshall versus Vini Ciccarello, I think Vini Ciccarello is not a strong candidate against Steven Marshall and now of course John Gardner against Lindsay Simmons, I think Lindsay Simmons is still recovering from the hairdresser...

Abraham: A former Crows superstar could knock Vini Ciccarello off...

Pyne: Actually that was a very good result in Norwood. What you miss...the point you keep missing in Norwood, although I vaguely try and say it, is that at the last State election there was a 9.6% swing against the Liberal Party in metropolitan Adelaide and the swing against us in Norwood was about 2.5% which means that actually is was a much, much better result in Norwood than any other metropolitan Adelaide seats.

Schacht: Why didn't you get him to run again over two elections, he might well have been in an even stronger position...

Pyne: ...we've got a very good candidate in Steven Marshall...

Schacht: ...why didn't you get him to run again?

Pyne: Steven Marshall is local, he's a very successful businessman. He's also active in the Italian community...

Abraham: ...you could have said he was smart in 2006, he'll be smarter in 2010...

Pyne: ...that's a matter for him...

Schacht: ...the Liberal Party has got to win 10 seats in its own right off independents and Labor to get to 24 seats with a majority of one.

Pyne: I think Tim Whetstone will do very well in the Riverland, against Karlene Maywald...

Schacht: Even if I gave you...

Bevan: You're going to run through all of the candidates!

Schacht: ...three of four out of the ten you're still way short and most of that ten are over I think eight percent. Several of them are up 6, 7, 8 to 10%. All I'm saying is it's just a fact that unless there is a dramatic landslide against Labor a number of those people that won their seats last time will win again. The real issue for the Liberal Party is, what are you saying, we can pick some seats back, particularly off the Independents and then aim for 2014.

Pyne: I think the big issue for the next election will be water...the issues you've picked and I talked about 6 months ago will still be the biggest issue in election.

Schacht: It's still not showing up yet as a vote changer. Still not showing up in these polls as a big vote changer. Yet. But it may.

Pyne: When the Opposition continues to announce specific water policy, like the storm water policy under Martin Hamilton-Smith. Last week it talked about a policy for the Riverland with water. Those specific water policies, I think, will make a tremendous difference.

Abraham: ...Now Roz from Strath. Hello Ross. Welcome to C1 and C2.

Caller Roz: Good morning. Look I want it known from the start that I'm A political but this thing with Magill and the push polling. As far as maybe in their psyche about Von Einem being released and children in Magill. I, as just the general voter out there in Voting Land, look at it like this that anybody's child can end up in Magill so it is of an interest of all people to make sure that those children are cared for in a decent and humane way, that they can be given a future, whereas the Von Einem's of this world, well turn the key and forget it. It's far too late. So I think it could backfire if that was anybody's intention with this push polling. It's just crazy.

Abraham: Roz thank you. Good morning Martin, I think you've got an observational question.

Caller Martin: Yeah good morning, just a quick question. I've been watching the question time on the TV...I love it actually. During the Federal Parliament days. The question I've got is when there is a vote to be taken by either side of the house in regards to something why is it that if they need to speak to the Speaker they put a piece of paper across their head?

Pyne: ...that's one of those quirky parliamentary traditions, from Westminster. When you are counting all of the vote, if you wish to speak to the Speaker...if you have to take a point of order or make some kine of point then you have to cover your head. I have absolutely no idea why that is the case! It's like wearing a hat, like you're sort of covering your head in some kind of hat thing but must go back a few centuries. But that guy on news radio, he'd work it out...the 'word person'...

Bevan: ...but this is only during a vote?

Schacht: Only during the counting of a vote.

Pyne: Only during a division. Now the really important thing about behaviour in divisions is that you are not covered by Parliamentary Privilege during the counting of a vote. So if I shouted our during a normal sitting time 'Schachty, you're a criminal!' I'd get away with it but if you're in a division...certainly here on air I would not be covered by privilege so he could sue me. Which peole don't know, which is very dangerous!

Abraham:  Now Ray from Flinders Park. Hello Rae.

Caller Rae: Hello fellas. Now look, I'm steaming. I heard Chris Schacht bragging about how well they're doing and every time we get a bank statement I think 'no wonder they're damn well doing well'. All these Government charges on our bank statements. I think often there are things we have no access to or don't use...and there are (unclear) of these charges and I thought that when the GST was taken all those charges would be done away with. Actually, I think they're finding new ones to add to too!

Pyne: I do too! I think most of them are bank fees, though...

Bevan: ...I don't' think most of them have got anything to do with the Federal Government, do you?

Pyne: I'm riled up about this, how could it suddenly cost banks $2 every time you go to an ATM that's not one of their banks' ATMs? For years and years, it cost them nothing, suddenly that little electronic transaction has slipped between...into the wireless net and back again, cost them $2...it's highway robbery!

Schacht: It's not highway robbery but I think, Christopher, what's happened is that they charged that in the past but never disclosed it. The ACCC has said 'you have to disclose that on the screen'in that there is a charge... Now I'm only going on how well the Government is doing by what was published in the poll. That was my argument.

Bevan: Do you think there were enough people in this poll to make it credible. It's a State wide poll. It's less than 400 people.

Schacht: ...the way The Advertiser and The Sunday Mail do their polls is not the way I would do it if I was paid for it doing it in Labor Party polling. The sample, the way they do it...they do it this way because it's cheaper this way...the one thing they do do, they put the undecided as undecided, they don't try and allocate that. The sample is a bit small. But I'm even told by the ANOP people that a sample of only two or three hundred in a State properly done and balanced will give you a reasonable result so long as it's done properly balanced in the demography.

Pyne: You've got to remember that polling is quite expensive and newspapers find it a bit prohibitive...

Schacht: ... they get the staff employed by the paper who's taking classified ads or something like that, get them to do the phone calling out. A professional firm like ANOP and the others, they have specially trained staff who know how to ask the questions, and that's not involving push polling, just how to ask the questions and how to make a proper judgement at what the answer is.

Abraham: Having said that I think that result, 56-44, putting aside maybe some of the fine detail, but the overall result is roughly what the Labor Party's been finding for the last six months...

Schacht: And what other polls have been showing, from News Poll etcetera.

Pyne: Let's not forget that Jeff Kennett and Nick Greiner and all sorts of other people over the years have been ahead in the polls for years and years and years and then suddenly thought 'I'll call and election because I'm so tremendously popular', they've had an election and the public think 'now there's an election on I better have a look'.

Schacht: Take the '97 State election, up until ten days from polling day Labor were so far behind no one even thought about it and they ran the...

Pyne: Then in the last federal Election Labor were so confident that they were going to win Sturt five days out from the election they were already popping the champagne corks.

Schacht: Well I wasn't one of them.

Pyne: That's because you're a bit smarter than them!

Bevan: Well you only won it by 106 votes.

Pyne: 1 711.

Schacht: Because....you're counting and all that!

Bevan: Andy from Golden Grove...hello Andy.

Caller Andy: ...wanted to have a bit of a talk about the Magill Training Centre... I was in Magill myself 40 years ago and I've also been in Windana Remand Centre 40 years ago. The way everybody's talking now is these poor kids... Well, they're not poor kids. They are young men, as an earlier lady said anybody's child can go into Magill. Rubbish...most of, all of the guys that are in there, and I'll call them guys because they're not kids, are repeat offenders. There's nobody in there that's just got in with the wrong crowd. These guys are the wrong crowd. They're all repeat offenders, all of the bleeding hearts out there that are saying we should build them a new place with single rooms, when I was inside we had dormitories. Now if you were a good inmate you got put into the dormitory. If you were bad you got kept in the single cells. So I can't see what giving them single rooms with an ensuite is going to solve anything at all except just give us a bit more tax to pay.

Abraham: Thank you Andy. To both of you...if you were betting people, which you're surely not...will the Government do something about Magill before the election?

Schacht: ...this is the advantage of being in Government...

Abraham: ...you can leave the kids in squalor until just before an election...

Schacht: ...because of all this pressure the Government. Labor and Liberal, leading up to election, have always got a kitty of money somewhere so that when it comes up you can deal with it. If an issue's got strength and damage or whatever you can actually say 'we are going to. We've now found the money and etcetera'. Labor and Liberal have all done that for a hundred years.

Pyne: ...if they do it'll be a good thing. And they'll be picking up the policy that Isobel Redmond's already announced and something they promised at least a couple of years ago. I don't know how Kevin Foley will go with that because he's already said basically he doesn't really have  any interest in doing any upgrade to the Magill Centre, but I guess he'll just be told by the Cabinet to eat his words.

Schacht: I think the Premier's the final arbiter on these matters in the strategy of the election campaign, as it should be tool.

Abraham: ...thank you...

(ends)